Analyzing the news: coronavirus is the death rate 2% or more?
3 by snow_mac | 1 comments on Hacker News.
Lets test the facts presented in the market watch article, https://ift.tt/2vZy2Oz Sources: Population 79,000; market watch article above 2%: https://ift.tt/2VksuJ6 and https://ift.tt/39ZpCWa I want to understand if the numbers being reported from various sources are correct or not. Fact coronavirus kills 2% of the world population Question is it actually 2% or are they under reporting the cases reported? Cases reported at least 79,000 world wide Estimated death toll percentage: 2% Reported deaths: 2622 people Test A x is the population of people who are infected 2622 is the reported number of deaths 0.02 is 2% is the reported percentage of infected that die from the virus x 0.02 = 2622 (x 0.02/0.02) = 2622/0.02 x = 2622/0.02 x = 131,100 Conclusion: Either it's not 2% or the population is misreported; if it's 2% then the population is 131,000 not 79,000 reported by the news. Thus given the population differences, we can calculate how much lower the 79,000 is then the un reported number; 60.2%. 79000/131100 = 60.2% Test B: Now lets figure out with the 79000 population what the correct death rate is: x is the percentage of deaths we're looking for. 79,000 is the reported population from the article 2622 is the reported number of deaths 79000 * x = 2622 (79000 * x)/7900 = 2622/79000 x = 2622/79000 x = 0.033 Conclusion: Thus given 79,000 we can reasonably estimate that the media is lying to us (or using bad math) and the death toll percentage is 3.3% of the infected cases. Conclusion of both numbers: 1. Either 3.3% is the true percentage of people who will die from the virus 2. Or the population of infect is much larger then what is being reported
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